Posted in Disease Prevention, Economic Issues, Education, outcomes measurement, Patient Safety, Policy Issues, Prevention, Protocols, Uncategorized

The end of exponential growth: The decline in the spread of coronavirus | The Times of Israel

A similar pattern – rapid increase in infections to a peak in the sixth week, and decline from the eighth week – is common everywhere, regardless of response policies

The following is the text of a study by Prof Isaac Ben-Israel, first published on April 16, 2020. (Ben-Israel discussed his research on Israeli TV on April 13, saying that simple statistics show the spread of the coronavirus declines to almost zero after 70 days — no matter where it strikes, and no matter what measures governments impose to try to thwart it.)

Our analysis shows that this is a constant pattern across countries. Surprisingly, this pattern is common to countries that have taken a severe lockdown, including the paralysis of the economy, as well as to countries that implemented a far more lenient policy and have continued in ordinary life.

It turns out that a similar pattern – rapid increase in infections that reaches a peak in the sixth week and declines from the eighth week – is common to all countries in which the disease was discovered, regardless of their response policies: some imposed a severe and immediate lockdown that included not only “social distancing” and banning crowding, but also shutout of economy (like Israel); some “ignored” the infection and continued almost a normal life (such as Taiwan, Korea or Sweden), and some initially adopted a lenient policy but soon reversed to a complete lockdown (such as Italy or the State of New York). Nonetheless, the data
shows similar time constants amongst all these countries in regard to the initial rapid growth and the decline of the disease.

For example, our calculations show that the pattern of the daily new infections as a percentage of accumulated number of infections (weekly averaged), is common to every country around the globe. Typically, in the first phase of the spread, this percentage amounted around 30%, decreased to a level of less than 10% after 6 weeks, and ultimately reached a level of less than 5% a week later.

Screen-Shot-2020-04-19-at-20.55.11-e1587319067631-640x400Screen-Shot-2020-04-19-at-20.54.01-e1587318879324-640x400

Note: The exponential GF of 1.15 is used to show means of comparison of infection growth rate. Notice Italy peaks at about 30 days; Sweden peaks about 37 days, yet the two countries took drastically different approaches in response to the outbreak.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/the-end-of-exponential-growth-the-decline-in-the-spread-of-coronavirus/

Posted in Disease Prevention, Free Society, Government Regulations, Liberty, outcomes, outcomes measurement, Patient Safety, Policy Issues, Prevention, Protocols, Rule of Law, Uncategorized, Unsettled Science

Bizarro World, COVID-Style

Does it seem like we’re all in a scene from the movie Idiocracy, or that Earth has suddenly turned into htraE, as in Bizarro-world? Here are a few headspinning examples.

Evidence indicates that summer sun kills the virus, but school-age kids – THE lowest risk group – are prohibited from congregating at the pool or baseball field or outdoor basketball court. If grandmother lives with you, then don’t attend or make adjustments to protect her.

Businesses can open, but stay-at-home is still in effect (no political fence-straddling going on here, no way). I guess it’s a Michigan thing.

Big-box and large sundry stores which sell “necessary” business products or food items are viewed as “essential” and people can go in/out by the hundreds without temperature checks or mandatory masks enforcement, but you couldn’t get a haircut or eye exam; even with temperature check, symptom screening and patron/client both wearing masks. And working-out at the gym at safe distance between low-risk patrons??? Forget about it!

On their days off, nursing home workers interact with family & go to the grocery store, then return to the facility where they interact with multiple at-risk residents; yet family of a elderly patient who is gravely ill with COVID in same facility are prohibited from doning PPE & visiting their dying loved-one.

Business are allowed to open by appointment-only, yet stay-at-home is still in effect? As if people are going to want to VOLUNTARILY be in a crowded store with strangers that might be infected! Appointments to browse for candles or running shoes?! Appointments for price comparing, really???

Never mind that the data shows absolutely NO correlation between the intensity of the lockdown measures and time to virus peak, number of cases per 100k population, or deaths as % of population. But yet we already knew that socioeconomic deprivation leads to major mental & physical health problems & family dysfunction, including drug abuse and even suicide. Despite these obvious contradictions, we continue to hear the mantra of “Stay home – Stay safe”. Never mind that 66% of 1200 COVID19 positive NYC hospital patients surveyed in April were made up of people sheltering at home. Never mind that 15 – 40% of cases are asymptomatic, or so mild, as to go undetected, which translates to a much higher prevalence than the number of confirmed cases would have us believe, thus a much lower case mortality rate than we were quoted initially.

So not only is much of the advice we are hearing not based on the evidence, but it is HURTING us is ways that will have negative effects long after the virus is gone. Our overseers have taken basic common sense guidelines designed to minimize spread of a very contagious virus and extrapolated them, stretched them, distorted them, magnified them and misapplied them. The citizens have suffered unnecessarily as a consequence of ceding our individual responsibilities & rights to these self-proclaimed experts and inept officials. The result has been a foul tasting layer-cake piled high with their mistakes.

It is time to take care of ourselves, our families, our communities and our businesses which sustain us all and allow us to weather this storm.

Criminalizing what used to be lawful, peaceful and productive endeavors should not be tolerated from our governing elites. If that means some peaceful civil disobedience, then so be it.

Posted in Disease Prevention, Free Society, Government Regulations, Influence peddling, Liberty, outcomes measurement, Patient Safety, Policy Issues, Prevention, Protocols, Rule of Law, U.S. Constitution, U.S. Security, Uncategorized, Unsettled Science

Covid-19 Science? | James Keena

“When will the pretentious proclaimers of Covid-19 “science” finally realize that the “science” has been wrong about almost everything so far? Despite their chronic wrongness, these elitists continue to use their unreliable “science” as a cudgel to put Americans under house arrest, destroy their businesses, put them out of work, trigger shortages of key commodities, burden them with trillions in federal debt, and imperil their lives.

What “science” has been wrong so far, you might ask? Let’s go through the specific claims.

We were told that millions were going to die in America if we didn’t shut down the economy to “flatten the curve” to prevent the medical system from being overwhelmed. Actually, after putting over 30 million people out of work, bankrupting countless businesses, and taking on trillions in new debt, we’re learning that the curves in states and countries that didn’t shut down “flattened” in almost the same manner as the curves in states and countries that did.

https://jameskeena.com/covid-19-science/

Posted in CDC, Disease Prevention, Education, Evidence-based Medicine, Government Regulations, outcomes, outcomes measurement, Patient Safety, Policy Issues, Protocols, Uncategorized, Unsettled Science

COVID-19 Among Workers in Meat and Poultry Processing Facilities ― 19 States, April 2020 |CDC.gov/mmwr

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6918e3.htm

mm6918e3_MeatpackingFacilitiesCOVID19_IMAGE_01May20_1200x675-mediumLet’s get this under control and protect workers for sure. But this is also an ideal opportunity to get some very important data regarding factors which influence spread within these meat plants and within homes/contacts of these infected workers.

We desperately need data to validate the reliability of various antibody tests on the market, those approved, waived and unapproved. I would encourage local/state governments to partner with universities to acquire this vital information.

And these cluster outbreaks are a perfect setting to get more information regarding true number of asymptomatic cases, how long people are pre-symptomatic and timing of immune responses to infection.

 

Posted in Evidence-based Medicine, News From Washington, outcomes measurement, Patient Choice, Patient Safety, Policy Issues, Prevention, Protocols, Uncategorized

The data is in — stop the panic and end the total isolation | TheHill

Leaders must examine accumulated data to see what has actually happened, rather than keep emphasizing hypothetical projections; combine that empirical evidence with fundamental principles of biology established for decades; and then thoughtfully restore the country to function.

Five key facts are being ignored by those calling for continuing the near-total lockdown.

Fact 1: The overwhelming majority of people do not have any significant risk of dying from COVID-19.

Fact 2: Protecting older, at-risk people eliminates hospital overcrowding.

Fact 3: Vital population immunity is prevented by total isolation policies, prolonging the problem.

Fact 4: People are dying because other medical care is not getting done due to hypothetical projections.

Fact 5: We have a clearly defined population at risk who can be protected with targeted measures.

https://thehill.com/opinion/healthcare/494034-the-data-are-in-stop-the-panic-and-end-the-total-isolation

Posted in Access to healthcare, Disease Prevention, Education, Evidence-based Medicine, Medical conditions and illness, outcomes measurement, Patient Safety, Policy Issues, Prevention, Protocols, Technology, Uncategorized

Coronavirus—April 2020 Part 6 | ImagineMD

virusGreat 6-part series about COVID19 covering multiple important issues since February 2020.

Part-6 includes a great discussion on importance of estimating, and eventually fine tuning, prevalence of COVID19 in general population so we can accurately interpret antibody serology test results for patients to help them guide decisions about work and family health.

A summary of topics covered in part-6 include:

  • Importance of Appropriate Studies
  • Should we wear masks
  • Should we get tested for antibody to COVID? What do results mean?
  • Estimating prevalence of COVID
  • The importance of calculating positive predictive value (PPV) and negative predictive value (NPP) as a function of prevalence

Source: Coronavirus—Apri2020 Part 6 | ImagineMD

Posted in Bailouts, Disease Prevention, Economic Issues, Education, Free Society, Government Regulations, Leadership, Liberty, outcomes measurement, Patient Safety, Philosophy, Poverty, Prevention, Protocols, Rule of Law, U.S. Constitution, Uncategorized, Unemployment, Uninsured

How Shutting Down The Economy Could Kill Tens Of Thousands | The Federalist

“The economy is the people, and the people are the economy. The ability to continue to function in a market system does matter to individuals within the system, particularly when the ability of business to remain open and continue to employ them is in question.”

Source: How Shutting Down The Economy Could Kill Tens Of Thousands

Posted in big government, Dependency, Economic Issues, emotional intelligence, Evidence-based Medicine, Free Society, Government Regulations, Leadership, Liberty, Patient Safety, Policy Issues, Prevention, Protocols, Uncategorized

Corona-snitches thrive in lockdown Europe – POLITICO

“Sociologist Patrick Bergemann, author of “Judge Thy Neighbor,” a book that analyzes denunciations in Inquisition-era Spain, Imperial Russia and Nazi Germany, said that snitching and semi-authoritarian behavior often surge in times of crisis.

“Fear-based denunciations are motivated by a perceived threat against individual or common safety,” he said. “Traditionally, they’ve been targeted against a group — outsiders, immigrants — but in this case people are afraid of a virus, so it’s less clear-cut.”

Bergemann, an assistant professor of organizations and strategy at the University of Chicago, said that fear-based snitching is often also tainted by spite, with many attempting to settle old scores by filing reports — including false ones — against rivals.

“In Nazi Germany, 42 percent of the denunciations were false. Authorities debated changing the system, but they ultimately decided to keep it because it was great for keeping everyone in line.”

https://www.politico.eu/article/coronavirus-lockdown-snitches-thrive-in-europe-reports-watchmen-spying-neighbors/