“More importantly, if you care about improving the quality of life and living standards over time, the essential question is always about creating broad-based, sustainable economic growth. What are the conditions that are most likely to help the economy get bigger, stronger, and more resilient? At the top of the list is a government which promulgates simple, predictable, and widely enforced rules; spends within its limits and doesn’t pursue arbitrary trade wars and military interventions; and doesn’t bog down the future with an ever-increasing mountain of debtthat tamps down growth and freezes out investment. Near the bottom of the list is something that is part of Sanders’ policy repertoire: Announcing bold new plans (Medicare for All! Free College for All!) without evenpretending to know how to payfor them.“
And now for the meaty post of the week! Seriously, this is a fantastic piece by The Grump Economist, John H. Cochrane, senior fellow at The Hoover Institute.
Here’s a sneak preview:
What’s causing the big drop in the stock market, and the bout of enormous volatility we’re seeing at the end of the year?
The biggest worry is that this is The Beginning of The End — a recession is on its way, with a consequent big stock market rout. Is this early 2008 all over again, a signal of the big drop to come?
Maybe. But maybe not. Maybe it’s 2010, 2011, 2016, or the greatest of all, 1987. “The stock market forecast 9 of the last 5 recessions,” Paul Samuelson once said, and rightly. The stock market does fall in recessions, but it also corrects occasionally during expansions. Each of these drops was accompanied by similar bouts of volatility. Each is likely a period in which people worried about a recession or crash to come, but in the end it did not come.
Still, is this at last the time? A few guideposts are handy.
“Governments should copy Switzerland and impose a spending cap. Iexplained this systemin a column for theWall Street Journalback in 2012.”
…85% of its voters approved an initiative that effectively requires its central government spending to grow no faster than trendline revenue. The reform, called a “debt brake” in Switzerland, has been very successful. Before the law went into effect in 2003, government spending was expanding by an average of 4.3% per year. Since then it’s increased by only 2.6% annually. …politicians aren’t able to boost spending when the economy is doing well and the Treasury is flush with cash. Equally important, it is very difficult for politicians to increase the spending cap by raising taxes.
Great tutorial that can get you up-to-speed on the budget and how it won’t balance under current trajectory. Senator Paul explains a simple way to balance and control the debt.
Inflation is widely misunderstood by the public. Even economists tend to have a hard time coming to a general agreement to the true definition of inflation. When you ask the person on the street what inflation is they usually respond by saying the “price of things going up” which is more of a
It works like this: Politicians find it in their self-interest to take from Peter and give to Paul, whenever Paul can offer more political support than Peter – in the form of votes, campaign contributions, get-out-the-vote efforts, etc. But as tax rates rise to pay for these political acts of theft, some of the Peters begin to emigrate to other jurisdictions. As more taxpayers leave, the tax rates needed begin to rise – leading to a greater exodus. Eventually there are no Peters left to tax to pay for all the benefits the Pauls were expecting.
In the United States I associate this general approach to politics with Franklin Roosevelt, who had two important insights.
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Inflation is widely misunderstood by the public. Even economists tend to have a hard time coming to a general agreement to the true definition of inflation. When you ask the person on the street what inflation is they usually respond by saying the “price of things going up” which is more of a
