So, I have little doubt that in March 2015, we will be hearing lots of stories applauding Obamacare for lowering premiums even more than indicated by these early estimates. This does not show that Obamacare is saving money: It shows that Obamacare’s insurers are getting better at attracting healthy applicants.
Indeed, the preliminary research makes it very clear that new entrants are often the low bidders. Incumbents, who have one year’s worth of Obamacare claims experience, want to shrink market share. These new, low-premium competitors have finely tuned their risk-selection techniques.
The sickest patients will continue to suffer, even worse than they did in Obamacare’s first year.